The first organized tropical system of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season could form as soon as Thursday, AccuWeather forecasters said. With the season officially getting underway on Wednesday, meteorologists said there was now a high chance of a depression or tropical storm forming over the warm waters anywhere from Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula to around the Florida Peninsula.

Meteorologists say there is already some risk that the burgeoning tropical rainstorm, which would be named Alex once it hits the 39-mph maximum sustained winds threshold for a tropical storm, could cross Florida at the end of this week and then the northern Bahamas this weekend.

As Hurricane Agatha moved inland over Mexico and dissipated on Monday, two areas of circulation were left behind. Of the two circulations that emerged on either side of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday, the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has emerged as the more dominant one.

The northwest Caribbean feature, which the National Hurricane Center designated as Invest 91L on Wednesday, will be the one AccuWeather meteorologists will track as a tropical rainstorm initially. As the system comes together, a gradual increase in strength to a tropical depression and eventually a tropical storm is likely. This will be the first tropical depression and storm of the 2022 Atlantic season, forecasters say.