A growing chorus, including the Georgia Public Service Commission’s (PSC) own staff and independent experts, is questioning the accuracy of Georgia Power’s projections for future electricity demand, particularly concerning the surge expected from data centers. Critics argue that the utility’s modeling is flawed and potentially overestimates the need for new power generation, a development that could have significant financial implications for ratepayers.

At the heart of the controversy is Georgia Power’s methodology for forecasting electricity demand. PSC staff and external analysts have presented testimony suggesting that the utility’s models may be skewed, leading to an inflated prediction of when and how much new electricity will be required. A key point of contention is the anticipated build-out of data centers, a sector experiencing rapid growth but also characterized by inherent project uncertainties.

“The modeling methods employed by Georgia Power appear to be biased towards an earlier and larger realization of load than is likely to occur,” stated a report submitted by PSC staff. This assessment is echoed by independent experts who argue that the utility has not provided robust enough evidence to justify such a steep projected increase in demand, especially from the data center sector. These projections, critics claim, are based more on an “unproven pipeline of interested customers” rather than concrete commitments.

A significant concern raised is the potential for data center projects to falter. The rapid pace of development in this sector means that not all announced or anticipated projects are guaranteed to materialize. Critics contend that Georgia Power’s forecast fails to adequately account for this inherent uncertainty, potentially leading to significant over-capacity if the demand doesn’t materialize as predicted. Furthermore, questions have been raised about whether Georgia Power is applying different calculation methods for data centers compared to other customer classes, a practice deemed questionable by some.

The Georgia Public Service Commission’s Public Interest Advocacy (PIA) staff have been vocal in their concerns, testifying that Georgia Power has likely overestimated its capacity needs. In a significant move, the PIA staff has formally recommended that the commission reduce Georgia Power’s load forecast. This recommendation, if adopted, could significantly impact the utility’s plans for infrastructure expansion and the associated costs.

In response to these criticisms, Georgia Power maintains that its forecast is grounded in the state’s economic projections for commercial and industrial customers, asserting that these projections continue to show growth. The company argues that its projections already account for data center projects currently in development and have not been adjusted to exclude these potential loads.

The debate is set to continue as the PSC deliberates on Georgia Power’s Integrated Resource Plan, a crucial document that outlines the utility’s long-term strategy for meeting electricity demand. The outcome of this assessment will have a profound impact on Georgia’s energy future and the financial well-being of its customers.