Georgia’s economy is expected to remain under pressure heading into 2026, with the risk of recession nearly a coin toss, according to the 43rd annual forecast from the University of Georgia’s Selig Center for Economic Growth. The report places the odds of a recession in Georgia at 49%, noting that the economy is struggling and could tip into a downturn with only a modest shock.

Economists point to national headwinds driven largely by Washington policies, including ongoing tariff disputes that are slowing economic growth and creating uncertainty for businesses. Georgia, which depends more heavily on international trade than most states, is feeling the effects more acutely—particularly in port-based communities like Savannah and Brunswick and in North Georgia industrial centers such as Dalton and Gainesville. Metro Atlanta’s diverse economy offers some insulation, but it is not immune.

The job market remains stable but sluggish. Hiring has slowed, giving employers more leverage and limiting opportunities for workers to change jobs for higher pay. Despite this, consumer spending continues to help prop up the economy, with recent state tax collections showing modest growth.

Household finances are generally in decent shape, supported by strong home values and manageable debt. However, housing affordability remains a concern, with costs expected to stay high due to limited supply, higher construction costs, and labor shortages.

Capitol Beat News Service contributed to this report.